The latest price and market dynamics of graphite electrodes (August 30)
Affected by the continued weak downstream demand, the current market price of graphite electrodes is slightly chaotic. In August, the quotations of graphite electrode enterprises were lowered twice by 2000-3000 yuan/ton. The specific influencing factors are analyzed as follows:
1. The demand side continues to be weak, which is bad for the consumption of the graphite electrode market
In August 2022, some areas were affected by high temperature power cuts, the production capacity of the downstream market was limited, and the demand for graphite electrodes was always weak.
The poor performance of the terminal steel market has not improved. According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, from January to July this year, the economy of the steel industry showed an obvious downward trend, and in July, there was a monthly loss of the whole industry, and the efficiency of enterprises fell sharply. In addition, since mid-August, electric furnace steel plants in the southwest (Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing) areas have basically stopped production due to high temperature power cuts, and the start of construction of metal silicon, yellow phosphorus and other markets has also been restricted. Therefore, as a whole, the downstream market starts at a low level, which inhibits the consumption of graphite electrode market.
2. Although the price of some raw materials has been lowered, it has not played a significant role in the impact on the graphite electrode market.
Although the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke has been lowered in August, Jinxi Refinery is currently executing 6,800 yuan / ton. However, due to the long production cycle of graphite electrodes, the impact of cost on the market cannot have a certain impact on the current market for the time being. In addition, the market is currently mostly bought when the raw materials are at high prices in the early stage, so the cost pressure of graphite electrode enterprises has not yet eased. In addition, the price of needle coke is in a high and volatile state, down 3.97% from July and up 31.14% from the beginning of the year.
Although the price of graphite electrode raw materials has been lowered recently, the reduction in the price of raw materials is less than the adjustment range of graphite electrode prices. The graphite electrode market continues to suffer losses, and the loss of graphite electrodes produced by some high-priced raw materials is even more obvious. The market quotation of graphite electrodes is slightly confusing, and the actual transaction and storage price difference.
3. Graphite electrode enterprises' stock, reduction and production conversion situation, and the supply side is limited in supercharging
Affected by the current poor market demand for graphite electrodes, in order to avoid the imbalance between supply and demand and maintain relatively stable prices, many graphite electrode companies have reduced production, stopped production, or changed downstream demand, and transferred some electrode production capacity to negative electrodes to produce graphite crucibles, graphite carbon plates, etc. .
As steel mills reduce production and the price of graphite electrode raw materials fluctuates, graphite electrode companies mostly maintain a state of production reduction in a wait-and-see mood. Some graphite electrode companies have shut down processes such as pressing, and production mainly consumes semi-finished products. At present, the downstream demand is not good, but graphite electrode enterprises have simultaneously reduced production and changed production. The overall supply side of the market is limited, and the market inventory is mainly accumulated in a small amount. Most graphite electrode enterprises say that the inventory pressure is not large.
4. The export of graphite electrodes in July decreased compared with the same period last year
According to customs statistics, China's graphite electrode exports in July 2022 were 29,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14% and a year-on-year decrease of 11%; from January to July 2022, China's graphite electrode exports totaled 208,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.93%. %. In July 2022, China's main exporting countries/regions of graphite electrodes: Russia, Kazakhstan, South Korea.
Market outlook forecast: In the short term, the negative impact on the demand of downstream steel mills will continue. In order to stabilize the market, graphite electrode companies will continue to reduce production in August, and the market supply is expected to decline. With the reduction of graphite electrode enterprise inventory and social inventory, the shrinking of the supply side may benefit the future market of graphite electrode. However, in the short term, it will take time to increase downstream demand, so it is expected that the short-term graphite electrode price may remain stable and wait-and-see operation, and high-priced resources will be reduced by 1,000 yuan/ton.
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